Why the iPad will succeed

A lot has been written for 'industry pundits' and columnists about the new Apple iPad. Some slam it, many give it a lukewarm review, and few hailed it as the next big thing. But universally, most are circumspect about announcing it as a failure - or a huge success.

As a product, the iPad is not going after 'market share' as this is a whole new product maybe a whole new market even. But it will definitely eat in to the sales of netbooks, PCs laptops, even Macbooks, and iPod touches.

It just occured to me that it may well be a huge success in numbers for another reason. I'm not sure of the numbers, but Apple sells more iPhones and iPod touches than it sell any other computing device. And a very large percentage of these iPhone and iPod touch owners do not own a Mac laptop or desktop.

So, for these people who have a iPhone or iPod touch, but not a Mac, the Mac vs PC argument means little. Even the OS in their hand held device matters little. For such users - of which there are millions -  who also own many AppStore apps, the iPad represents a device which...

1. runs all their existing iPhone/iPod touch apps.
2. allows them to surf the web on a larger screen anywhere.
3. allows them to see movies on a larger screen anywhere.
4. make documents, spreadsheets, presentations with a 'touch'.
5. may one day allow them to buy and comfortably read books on a hand held device.
6. play a variety of games on the go.
7. listen to all their music.
6. costs less than their iPhone (in many countries).

Now that sounds like an attractive device.

That's how it will appear to a large percentage the 75 million or so iPhone or iPod users especially outside the US in countries where the iPhone sold even for about US$ 700-900 and was still lapped up.

For techies and media pros, there are additional uses...

1. browser for manuals

2. logging media

3. jotting down tech notes

4. viewing media on the go - maybe even dailies

5. making presentations

6. sketching layouts even circuit diagrams

7. vnc over wifi

8. writing continuity

9. emergency clap or slate

Canon to adopt MPEG-2 for forthcoming pro HD video camera

Canon announced yesterday that their forthcoming professional video camera would record to file. Possibly on flash memory like SD or CF cards, but using an MPEG-2 codec. This would be MPEG-2 full HD (MPEG-2 4:2:2P@HL), 1920x1080 full raster at 50 Mbps.

So Canon has decided to go with MPEG-2 as opposed to AVCHD. And this MPEG-2 is not your 4:2:0 HDV kind of sub-sampling but 4:2:2 just like Pro HD formats. And its full raster 1920x1080, not 1440x1080 as in HDV. This new format will compete directly with XDCamEx which is also full raster, but at 35 Mbps.

MPEG-2 4:2:2P@HL is similar to the one used by broadcasters on Betacam SX and IMX. So its a known quantity in post. And is gorgeous to look at.

The announcement also states that Canon is working closely with Avid, Apple, and Adobe, and Grass Valley. So, expect Media Composer, FCP, Premiere, and Edius to be able to edit Canon movies natively, and not via a log and transfer process. Or a CPU hungry decompression-on-the-fly.

The file format will be MXF based, so that's straight away SMPTE approved. 

This new camera is likely to be the same or similar to the mockup shown at InterBee some months ago. And covered by DVInfo.net. It looks like a replacement for the cult camera series - XL-1, XL-1s, XL-H1 and variants. It also signals the possible end of tape-based cameras from Canon.

Sony's XDCam HD camcorder PDW-F800 also uses the same compression scheme, but it records to Sony's encased Blu-ray disks. That camera costs upwards of US$ 45000 (over Rs 25 lakhs). I think Canon's MPEG-2HD camera series will come in the $4000 to $8000 range.

It will attract documentary, short film, and experimental film makers. It is a natural upgrade for XL series camera owners of which Canon knows it can cound on tens if not hundreds of thousands. Canon has tasted success with their DSLRs that do video - a market they practically created and which could touch 100,000 by this year end.

And for Canon, each camera sold is several lenses sold too. So maybe this new MPEG HD camera will have interchangeable lenses. Maybe even an APS-C sensor so existing DSLR lenses could be used.

Apple defies piracy and fakes...

…and the Times of India actively promotes piracy and fakes.

At the Jan 27th presentation in San Fransisco, where the Apple iPad was unveiled, Steve Jobs (Apple co-founder and CEO) also briefly touched upon the financial status of his company -  Apple. I found it to be quite demonstrative of how financial success comes to those who excel, and dare.

Between Oct and Dec 2009, Apple showed a revenue of US$ 15.6 billion (Rs 73,000 crores). To put that into perspective, the entire Hollywood industry's gross for 2009 was $ 10.8 billion (Rs 50,000 crores). So, in 3 months Apple grossed 1 and a half times what Hollywood grossed in 1 year.

Closer to home, I've tried hard to come by accurate figures about Indian Entertainment. But these figures are from one of the most respected sources. It puts the entire Indian Filmed Entertainment Industry at 'being worth' Rs 9,600 crores in 2007. Growing annually at 14% it would be about 17,600 crores in 2012.

Apple showed revenues of Rs 73,000 crores in just 3 months. So, one company selling iPods, iPhones, laptops and desktop computers - earns 4-5 times what India's entire movie industry earns in 1 year.

But then, the Indian movie industry would have earned much more if there was no piracy, right? Of course, but how much more?

And its not as if Apple doesn't have to deal with piracy. People pirate software that Apple makes.  Even film producers who stand against piracy don't buy Apple software, one per computer they just copy and use it - otherwise known as piracy.

Pirates even sell fake iPods and iPhones. These cost a fraction of Apple's iPhone and iPod. To make it worse, even a reputed newspaper like the Times of India regularly advertises a fake iPhone (called iFone) in its newspaper. And the Times' own online shopping site, Indiatimes Shopping regularly sells the iFone.

Here's a screenshot of a page at indiatimes.com which openly sells a (possibly Chinese) mobile phone that is a copy of the iPhone. Its called iFone.

Apple defies piracy. They don't crib and whine about piracy and competition, while Indian movie producers can't get over it. The real iPhone and the real iPod cost 4-10 times the fake pirated one, but still Apple's iPhone and iPod outsell the fakes by many tens of times over. At least the Indian movie industry doesn't have to compete with fake and pirated movies that are advertised for sale on the Times of India.

And so, this small company in California grosses 4-5 times the money in 3 months than an entire industry moans and groans while making over a year. Apple do this by making good products that people want to own, by giving users a unique experience.  And by caring for their users even after they've bought products. Even in India.

Achievers don't whine. They move along and conquer.

Apple iPad cheaper than iPhone in India

On Jan 27th around 11 pm India Time, Apple announced a new device, the Apple iPad. Steve Jobs - the co-founder and CEO of Apple - was there himself. Very enthusiastically showing his latest creation.

In the days that followed, on various sites on the 'net, this new device has been hailed by some as the next great thing in mobile devices and slammed by others as an underwhelming 'large iPhone' or 'large iPod touch'.

What it turns out to be, only time will tell. The Apple iPad is a new device, possibly an appliance. At the heart it is a computer, with a CPU made by Apple. The iPad can natively run all existing iPhone apps. Users can buy new apps through the iTunes app store. And download their music to the device.

Apart format these very normal attributes, the iPad will also let you buy books from a iBookstore (only in the USA), and read them on the iPad. There will also be a version of Numbers, pages, and Keynote for the iPad, at $ 10 each. And the application called Brushes that lets you draw and paint with your finger on to the screen directly.




 The iPad also lets you play any existing iPhone game. And a number of companies have come forward with plans for games for the iPad.
 

The iPad also has an optional keyboard, but you can do all text entry with an onboard keyboard like the iPhone or iPod touch.

These are all features that Jobs and his colleagues showed on the 27th. But since its at least 60 days till the iPad will be actually available, there is a likelihood that some more features might be added before launch.

The iPad has no camera. Connectivity consists of a dock port, USB, audio in and out. And of course Wifi. There will be a 3G version can have mobile Internet anywhere with a micro-SIM. Best of all the iPad will not be locked to any specific carrier and you can put your own SIM.

When it becomes available in March '10 (maybe April in India), it will be sold in 3 'non 3G' versions
16 Gb - $ 500
32 Gb - $ 600
64 Gb - $ 700

Going by how these translate with customs duties in India,
the iPad may cost about
16 Gb - Rs 28,000
32 Gb - Rs 34,000
64 Gb - Rs 40,000

There will also be 3 'with 3G' versions costing
16 Gb - $ 630
32 Gb - $ 730
64 Gb - $ 830

which may translate to about
16 Gb - Rs 35,300
32 Gb - Rs 41,300
64 Gb - Rs 47,300

At the present time (Jan 2010) the iPhone 3G on eBay India sells for about
Rs 30,000 for 8 Gb
Rs 32,000 for 16 Gb.

And the iPhone 3Gs sells for about
Rs 34,000 for 16 Gb
Rs 40,000 for 32 Gb version.
These are all unlocked.

So, it looks like in April, when (hopefully) Apple introduces it in India, the iPad will cost less than an iPhone. Unless Vodafone/Airtel and/or the grey market lower the price of the iPhone 3G and 3Gs.

Incidentally, at jjmehta.com, Apple iPod touch are available for Rs 11,000, Rs 17,000 and Rs 20,500 for the 8, 32, and 64 Gb versions. So this device is not likely to be affected by the iPad in a big way.

The 3G version of the iPad which need a micro-SIM and 3G coverage to function will likely come to India much later - like July or later. But, all iPads sold in the US or EU/UK, will be unlocked, the the 'unlock tax' that the grey market enjoyed with the iPhone will be absent with the iPad in India.

I suspect everyone who goes to the US or anywhere outside India after March, will come back with an iPad. So I doubt there will be  premium price for the iPad. It will likely become like an iPod to iPod touch, where Apple and partner stores sell it, and the grey market does so too albeit at a lower price.

Red Day and Sony SR 2.0 - New initiatives for Digital Cinema

'Red Day' took place in Hollywood on 16 Jan 2010. And Sony had a SR 2.0 event on 8 Dec 2009. Two events that were aimed at taking forward Digital movie making.

Red Day was covered here.

You can check the links provided. But the basics are...

Red is now listening more to customers that they probably did before. Many improvements in the original Red one and future cameras will reflect this.

Red one will now have an improved M-X sensor. With a new colour science. Existing Red One owners can upgrade their cameras with this new sensors for US$ 5750. I'm not sure how cameras from India will manage of the camera needs to be shipped back to the US.

Red Ray, Red's 4k player will be called Red 4k. It plays 4k material from Red cameras at just 15 mbps (bits!)

Red's new cameras Epic and Scarlet are on course for a availability later this year. First to select existing customers, then all existing customers, then new customers. As usual, timings can change and they follow American seasons like fall, spring, summer instead of calendar months like the rest of the world can understand.

Sony's event was to trace the future path of HDCam SR. More on the event here.

But basically...
The SRW-9000 will be the camera platform for digi cinema of the future. It can be made in 2k and maybe even higher 4k versions.
Tape for recording will be out. Instead there will be 1 Tb flash memory - RAID 5 protected.
Lower quality versions of the HDCam SR as a codec to be available.

And there were other announcements about calibration, CDLs, etc.

Basically, these new announcements will take shape later this year. In the case of Sony, probably in 2011-12.

Or, yet another camera, that does HD or higher resolution movies, provides an uncompressed HD or 2k out, doesn't use binning to make images, and uses full frame or S35 sized frames. So, a variety of economical but excellent still camera lenses can be used.

Such a camera, with a good viewfinder, easy focussing that can be tracked, exposure manual adjustment, and other filmy features could make these Red and Sony initiatives irrelevant.

But if such a camera doesn't make it, then we in India will use film in a big way till the end of 2012 at least.

Blog anywhere

My first post in 2010 comes, appropriately enough, while on the move with my iPhone. This is to check out how easy or difficult this is. So, among my first observations for 2010 is a sort of a prediction cum expectation if where the post industry is headed. 


Trends, briefly... 
Tapeless for video acquisition. 
More mainstream movies shot digitally. 
Grading and colour correction will move from big post facilities to small productions' own offices. 
Video-capable DSLRs will develop movie camera features... 
Or Canon and others will introduce movie capable digital cameras. 
Boutique VFX/CGI houses will bloom and prosper. 
Digital Cinema will grow in India - film prints will shrink in number. 
HD Television will take root in India. 
3G will open up newer opportunities for video entertainment.
Only some wise people will actually make money on 3G video.
Wireless Internet will spread into remote areas of India.


And lots more happenings which I'll post as they happen, and with my observations for how it matters for us in post-production in India. 
Happy 2010 and this year do please use the 'Subscribe' or 'Donate' buttons to the right. 


Cheers. - Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone


PS. After posting this from my iPhone, I checked it out on the actual blog and it was one big paragraph. No line or para breaks. So I've edited it on my iMac. So the BlogPress Lite app for the iPhone does not seem to do formatting too well. Need to explore this further.

Backup for tapeless media

Many film-makers have begun to shoot on tapeless media. XDCam Ex, P2, video on DSLRs, Red, AVCHD, hard disk camcorders, and such like. So, naturally, where they would store tapes in a cupboard, they now have all their 'rushes' as digital video files sitting on hard disks.

Hard disks have become larger, faster and cheaper - like they've been doing for decades now. They've also become more unreliable. Almost anyone who's shooting digital has a hard disk failure story to tell.

So what's the best way to backup this new media? A couple of approaches based on my experience.

First, estimate who much data you need to store. Red, video DSLRs, XDCam Ex, P2 all have a data rate - a certain number of Gb/hr. For instance HDV is 13 Gb pr hour, Canon 5D or 7D do 19 Gb/hr, XDCam Ex is 16 Gb/hr, Red is 98 Gb/hr and so on. So you can get a number on how many hours of your media a 500 Gb or 1 Tb hard disk can hold. Get hard disks accordingly.

In the case of Red, XDCam Ex, and video DSLRs you need to store the original media as well as the media you edited with. So that adds to the number of Gb or Tb needed.

One relatively low cost method is to get small 2.5 in. portable hard disks. These cost about Rs 6000 for 500 Gb. You get two drives of even different makes to spread the risk by making a copy on both drives. These drives can now hold you original camera media. This is not what you edit with so the drives need not be fast and so 2.5 in. drives will work just fine.

Then for the editing, get 1, 1.5 or even 2 Tb Firewire drives. If you want better speed, get a eSATA drive and fit your MacPro with a SATA card. Or if you have a MacBook Pro, you can get an Express Card adapter to use eSATA drives.

For this editing media too, store your files on two drives to reduce the risk of drive failure. Here too, I favour drives of different makes. My favorites are Western Digital and Seagate. But not LaCie.

But if you're dong this on an ongoing basis and expect a lot of data, you'll find that you end up with a stack of drives. Leading to newer storage problems.

Consider getting a RAID. This is an external case that has a bank of 4 or 5 hard disks. These disks work as one large hard disk. They are combined using some magic called RAID striping, that makes them safe.

So, in a RAID out of 4, if one disk were to fail, your data is still fully safe. All you need to do is  to replace the failed drive and the system automatically rebuilds it and fills it with data that was on the old drive.

There are many companies making safe RAIDs for editing. I'm in the process of getting one for myself and testing it for safety for tapeless media for documentaries and features.

For long term backup, consider two other mediums - Blu-ray and LTO tapes. These cost less than hard drives and last longer than disks. they don't need power to store data and read it.

Blu-Ray is great for backing up video DSLR data. One disk holds 23 Gb which compares nicely with 16 Gb memory cards that video DSLRs use. Or even SxS cards that XDCam Ex uses. Even the Red shoots to 8 or 16 Gb CF memory cards so Blu-ray can be used to back up Red files too.

Over time you'll find that you have many many blu-ray disks posing a storage problem of its own. LTOs store more than Blu-ray, typically 400 or 800 Gb per tape depending on whether it is LTO 3 or LTO 4.

To backup to LTO 3 or LTO 4, you need to buy a drive that can write to Blu-ray disk, or LTO tape. These drives cost about Rs 40k for a Blu-ray writer, and about Rs 2 lakhs for an LTO drive.

If that's out of your budget, consider getting in touch with a post facility that has these drives. They could do the backup for you on a per tape, or per Gb basis that can make it economical.

Whatever route you take, factoring the backup of your media is crucial. Digital cameras create data that represents your time and effort shooting. You lose that data just because a drive failed, usually means you've lost all your rushes. Completely avoidable with a bit of planning..

Smoke on Mac OSX

Earlier this month (Nov 2009) word filtered out at various sites on the 'net of an upcoming Autodesk Smoke for Mac OSX. I first heard it in a podcast. Then fxguide.com came out with it as a news item.

My sources in Autodesk, initially were hesitant to confirm it (NDAs and all that), but as it became public, they did acknowledge it. A few days ago it was out in the open with Autodesk sources here in Mumbai telling us about how it will be in India. More on that, a bit later.

Now, substantial details are available, and fxguide.com has actually posted a video on fxguide.tv that even has interviews with Autodesk representatives, even a developer who described the port to Mac OSX.

A link to the video is here
Watch FXguide TV Epi 072

From that, and other sources, here's a picture of the new Autodesk Smoke on MacOSX.

First off, Smoke on Mac will look and feel pretty much like Smoke on Linux or even Irix. The same interface, buttons, timelines and windows. No Mac Integration as such and you probably won't see Mac menus. So its not a new application, just a 'port' or a transfer to a new platform.

Second, Smoke on Mac OSX will be sold as a software for US$ 15,000 (Rs 7 lakhs)
And annual subscriptions will be US$ 2000 (Rs 94,000 to be paid every year)

It will need a system like this to run on…
MacPro 2007 or later
8 core Xeon
8 GB RAM, 12 Gb preferred
Aja Kona 3 card
Quadro FX 4800 or FX 5600 display card
Single display 1920x1200 resolution (multiple displays won't be supported)
A seriously fast Fibre Channel SATA RAID or SAS RAID that can deliver 500 MBytes/sec

The Nvidia Quadro FX 5600 card costs US$ 2700 (Rs 1.27 lakhs) and the SDI version costs US$ 6000 (Rs 2.8 lakhs)
The Nvidia Quadro FX 4800 card costs US$ 1600 (Rs 75,000) and looks like there's no SDI version

So, if you want to get a new Smoke on a Mac with MacPro, Kona and Nvidia as per Autodesk's recommendations, you're looking at about
Rs 5,00,000 for the MacPro
Rs 1,70,000 for the Kona
Rs 90,000 for the Nvidia FX 4800
Rs 7,00,000 for Smoke software
Rs 8,00,000 for the ultra-fast storage

So. for under Rs 23 lakhs, you'll have a Smoke system. (If my maths is holding up)

I don't know what exactly the current Linux Smoke costs, but its much more than this. Probably in the Rs 60-70 lakhs zone.

What will the Smoke on Mac not have that the Linux Smoke does? Or, if I'm looking to buy a Smoke now, should I buy a Mac Smoke or a Linux Smoke.

From indications available now, the Mac Smoke will not have…
1. Linux
2. Batch, which if you use heavily, you'll miss badly
3. Real time deliverables
4. Sparks and probably other plug-ins won't work too.

What you will have is greater integration with Quicktime. You can now soft-import Quicktime, even ProRes and DNxHD. Sort of like how FCP handles media without actually importing it into a proprietary format.

Since the Mac Smoke does not support a card like the Quadro FX 5800 SDI that the Linux Smoke supports, you won't have live HD-SDI output which is what real-time deliverables means. So some rendering may be needed. But the MacPro is as fast as the Linux Smoke's HP z800 Workstation, so there won't be much difference there.

From what I've heard, Autodesk in India will not sell Smoke as software only. They will sell a turnkey system just like they do now (with Linux Smoke). Probably in partnership with an Apple reseller. As these systems become available, it remains to be seen if the market actually favors a turnkey system, or they'll just go out and buy the software and make it work on a system they've put together.

Also, what remains to be seen if the policy of annual subscriptions is compulsory or can users get that also online. People who aren't used to the 'Discreet tax' aren't accustomed to owning a system and yet not owning it which is how a Smoke traditionally felt like.

As the first few Mac Smokes get installed here in Mumbai, will there be a differentiation in rental costs between Mac Smoke and Linux Smoke? Like will you be able to rent Mac Smoke for, say Rs 2500 per hour vs. Rs 3000 per hour that Linux Smoke now commands? Or, will people not make the distinction and crash all rentals to Rs 2000 per hour or less for a Smoke.

Let's wait and see how this Smoke on a Mac (or Smac) thing turns out in Mumbai.

The new Red Epic-X camera

Red, the company that gave the world the Red one camera some years ago, has announced plans for their next model - the Epic-X. Although the Epic-X was announced nearly a year ago, we now have some real specifications.

The Epic-X will be a modular camera so one can customize it for different roles and occasions. it will be able to shoot at up to 5k resolution and at speeds of up to 250 fps at 2k. It will also do a decent HD resolution

There is also a new Red code at higher data rates, a new FLUT Colour science and other features. But all of these are only announced specs and we will see more or less features as they are out.

You can't go out and buy an Epic-X yet. It will be rolled out in 4 'stages'.

In Stage 1, a select group of Red owners will be able to buy an Epic-X for $ 28,000 along with some standard accessories. This will be a 'beta' camera with features that may need working around.

In Stage 2, a more finished camera will be available. This will be based on feedback received from stage 1 owners. So this one will be a 'working model'. 

Stage 3 Epic-X cameras will be made available to Red owners for $ 19,500 and they get to keep their existing Red camera. They can also upgrade their existing Red camera sensor to a new Mysterium sensor for $ 4500 presumably to make it 'sort of' equivalent to a Epic-X.

Stage 3 is when Red owners can return their existing Red one camera and get a Epic-X for $ 10,500.

And Stage 4 is for those who don't have a Red camera, so they simply buy a new Epic-X camera for $ 28,000.

I wonder what happens to Indian Red camera owners. They have bought their Red camera after paying Customs duties of anything between 25 and 40% of the cost. They are never going to get that back. So for Indian Red camera owners it think it has to be Stage 2.

These are all announcements. Things can change till beginning 2010 when these begin to be shipped. As usual with Red "Everything is subject to change. Count on it".

Video DSLRs - how good are they really

The original intent of the Canon 5d MkII was not to be a video camera, nor challenge any existing video cameras. It was made to fulfill a specific need of reporters from Reuters who could shoot pro quality stills with the occasional video.

The video format of the Canon 5D MkII was made as 30 fps not 29.97 fps with that specific intention.  Reuters reporters were expected to create video for the web with this device. Web can work with 30fps every bit as well as 29.97 fps.

The form factor of the camera is friendly for still photographers so they could concentrate on shooting stills rather than learn a whole new alien interface as well as method of using a camera. Still photographers simply wouldn't have been able to easily adjust to a shoulder mount camera. On the other hand, holding a camera at arm's length and looking at an LCD screen is not very new to them.

What Canon did not estimate is how well the video fraternity took this camera up. They have sold nearly 50,000 5dMkII models and maybe about half as many 7Ds. And now there's the 1D MkIV. Together, through 2010 Canon could easily move probably a 100,000 pieces.

There is probably no video camera, and definitely no pro HD or higher resolution camera that can ever hope to sell these numbers. Even the Red, arguably the post popular pro digital movie camera so far, has sold not too many over 5000.

One of the benefits of making a still camera that shoots video, rather than a video camera that shoots stills, is that still shooters who use the SLR form factor are generally good photographers. They have a strong sense of composition and pictorial language.

They often also make a living out of taking pictures. Hence, by and large, videos from these vDSLRs seem to be pretty decent looking compared to the shaky, zoomy, swimmy videos most amateurs dish out of handycam type video cameras.

Vimeo, Flickr, smugmug, Exposure Room are full of some really great video from vDSLRs. Perya, Dublin's People, Nocturne, are just some examples.

Granted, they may be unsuitable for broadcast, but there is a huge, not-recession-ridden market of wedding video, corporate video, and internet video that can benefit from vDSLRs.